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California is located in a hot-zone of fault lines that can rupture without warning. Parts of the San Andreas fault have not ruptured in over 200 years, meaning it's overdue for a high-magnitude earthquake commonly referred to as "The Big One."
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Read More »California is located in a hot-zone of fault lines that can rupture without warning. Parts of the San Andreas fault have not ruptured in over 200 years, meaning it's overdue for a high-magnitude earthquake commonly referred to as "The Big One." Here's what experts say could happen in seconds, hours, and days after the Big One hits the West Coast.
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Read More »John Wallace: The number of buildings that were constructed before about 1980 is really significant, and most of these buildings are very vulnerable to damage and collapse. Narrator: In this time-lapse video, you can see how building components would hold up in a high-magnitude earthquake. Wallace: 'Cause the San Andreas will produce the kind of long-period shaking which would be very damaging to very tall buildings, say, in downtown LA, and Century City, and Long Beach, and so forth. Older steel buildings, the connections in them have not necessarily been designed to withstand the maximum forces that actually can be generated. Narrator: Unreinforced structures are the least stable, but even buildings up to code could crumble. John Stewart: The building code, with its minimum requirements, does not ensure that the building will be serviceable after an earthquake. It's intended to not kill anybody. There's a sense that if it's modern, code-designed, it's earthquake-proof and everything should be great, but that's not the reality. Narrator: Five steel high-rises could collapse completely, while 10 others will be red-tagged, or unsafe to enter. And, no, the quake would not cause a tsunami, despite what movies would have you believe. Vidale: To trigger a tsunami, it takes an earthquake that moves the ocean floor, and most of the San Andreas is on land, so there would be a little bit of waves generated from a San Andreas earthquake, but nothing that would be dangerous. Narrator: The quake could kill about 1,800 people and leave 50,000 or more with injuries. While people could die from falling debris and collapsed structures, the highest death toll would be from fires. Vidale: Historically, the biggest hazard from earthquakes has been fire. In the 1906 earthquake there were 3,000 or 4,000 people who were just caught in that wave of fire that swept through the city. Narrator: The aftermath of the big one will wreak havoc on infrastructure and the economy. Narrator: Parts of the San Andreas Fault intersect with 39 gas and oil pipelines. This could rupture high-pressure gas lines, releasing gas into the air and igniting potentially deadly explosions. Stewart: So, if you have natural-gas lines that rupture, that's how you can get fire and explosions. Narrator: And after the fires burn out, one of the biggest concerns in a major earthquake is access to fresh water. The major aqueduct networks that pump water into Southern California all cross the San Andreas Fault and could be seriously damaged. Stewart: So we would be without the lifelines that bring in imported water to the region. They cross through tunnels, cross through aqueducts near the surface. All of these would be ruptured, and so we would be losing 60% of our water supply. Many of these distribution lines for water are near sewer lines, which would also be broken, so now you have a situation where contaminants are potentially getting into the water supply. Narrator: Experts say you should keep at least a two-week supply of water in your home.
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Read More »Narrator: As the ground shakes and sediments shift, there will be landslides throughout Ventura and Western Los Angeles County. Brandenberg: There could be thousands of landslides. There have been earthquakes that have produced thousands. Landslides definitely can cause fatalities, property damage. We have a lot of people who live up in the hills. Right? So that's the location where you would be likely to see landslides affecting people. Narrator: And finally, the big one will severely impact the economy. Major transportation networks, like highways and railways, could be unusable for weeks and even months. Brandenberg: Some bridges may not be passable after an earthquake. We've had bridges collapse during past earthquakes. Stewart: You might start seeing key industries leave, population loss, and this could have, you know, devastating long-term impacts for the region. Narrator: The estimated financial cost of the big one is a whopping $200 billion, with $33 billion in building damages and $50 billion in lost economic activity. This all sounds pretty bad, but keep in mind that this is based off of a worst-case scenario. The true impact of a major earthquake is based on a range of unknowable factors. Also, smaller earthquakes on faults directly beneath major population centers are a serious concern. Vidale: But the worst-case earthquakes are hard to predict. You know, that earthquake in Japan in 2011, their cost almost entirely came because their nuclear power plant melted down. It's very hard to predict what's gonna fail in a big earthquake.
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